US20120078675A1

US20120078675A1 - Traffic Based Labor Allocation Method And System

Info

Publication number: US20120078675A1
Application number: US13/190,295
Authority: US
Inventors: Dave McNeill; Jim Martin; Paige Stover; Gary Dispensa; Ian Harris; Eric Guanlao; Anurag Pande
Original assignee: ShopperTrak RCT LLC
Current assignee: ShopperTrak RCT LLC
Priority date: 2007-01-15
Filing date: 2011-07-25
Publication date: 2012-03-29
Also published as: US20080172282A1; EP2122463A1; WO2008089131A1; CA2675389A1; US7987105B2; EP2122463A4

Abstract

A method and system for distributing labor based upon determinations of traffic in a facility, such as a store. Daily traffic forecast information is obtained for each day within a given time period from a source of such information. Calendar and event information for the facility for each day within the given time period is determined. Baseline days are selected from historical traffic data, and baseline averages and percentages for a predetermined time interval are also selected. The distribution of traffic for each day within the given time period at each time interval is determined using the baseline percentages for each time interval. Labor data is distributed. Labor recommendations are provided at each time interval for the given time period based on the distribution of traffic for each day, and at least one of other user-defined workforce requirements. The results of any or all of these steps are displayed to a user.

Description

CROSS-REFERENCE

This application is a continuation of U.S. patent application Ser. No. 11/623,229, which was filed on Jan. 15, 2007. This prior application is incorporated herein in its entirety.

BACKGROUND

1. Field of the Invention
The present invention generally relates to the field of labor or workforce management, and more specifically to a computerized method for determining the distribution of traffic and providing labor scheduling recommendations based on foot traffic information for facilities such as retail stores, malls, casinos, or the like.
2. Related Prior Art
Traditionally, labor staffing was performed manually by the management of businesses. The invention of computer technology facilitated the labor staffing process by allowing humans to use computer programs. More recently, computer methods have been developed to determine improved workforce schedules. Examples include Gary M. Thompson (A Simulated-Annealing Heuristic For Shift Scheduling Using Non-continuously Available Employees, Computer Ops. Res. Vol. 23, No. 3, pp 275-288, 1996) and U.S. Pat. No. 6,823,315.
Gary M. Thompson described a method of labor scheduling using a simulated annealing process, which heuristically compares a trial schedule from an incumbent schedule. U.S. Pat. No. 6,823,315 is directed to a cost-effective workforce scheduling system, which takes into consideration workforce requirements including employee preferences and job skills in addition to using a simulated annealing function.
An essential problem for labor scheduling is to accurately predict staffing needs for stores. Stores tend to have varied foot traffic during different seasons. For example, the period between Thanksgiving and Christmas is usually very busy and thus more traffic is expected. On the other hand, a Tuesday afternoon in a month with no national holiday may expect less traffic than normally observed. Therefore, foot traffic for a given store is an important factor for predicting store sales and staffing needs for that given store. Previous scheduling approaches have not come to realize the importance of store traffic and often used other data, such as historical store sales, as the main factor for predicting future store sales and labor demands. However, historical store sales information may not be a good indication of potential sales, because being short handed at busy seasons is likely to have a negative impact on sales. Using old sales data to predict future sales is likely to suffer from repetitive mistakes.
Meanwhile, store traffic is a better representation of staffing demands and is perhaps the most accurate leading indicator for future sales. Research shows that, for example, a steady decline in store traffic indicates that sales will similarly decline within approximately 13 months. Therefore, if a store only sees that sales 1 steady but is unaware that the store traffic has declined, that store won't be prepared to take corrective action before facing a future loss in sales. Each shopper that walks through the door represents a sales opportunity. Syncing store labor to foot traffic and conversion rate does not require the retailers to spend more; rather it will allow more efficient management of labor. No prior invention has developed a labor scheduling method using traffic data as the leading input for predicting labor demands and recommendations.
Thus, it is a primary objective of this invention to provide a computerized labor scheduling method using traffic information.

SUMMARY OF THE INVENTION

The invention relates to, a staffing planning method for distributing store traffic forecast across a day and providing weekly staffing recommendations. In one form of the invention, employees are scheduled at ½ or 1 hour intervals. In order to predict the traffic distribution at ½ or 1 hour intervals across a day, baseline days are selected from an historical traffic distribution database and used as references to compute the traffic distribution for a future date. The method computes the average share of foot traffic in the store at each ½ or 1 hour interval for the baseline days. The shares of foot traffic are used for calculating daily foot traffic distribution for the given date. Staffing recommendations for a targeted period are computed by distributing labor as a linear function of the foot traffic and are also subject to user-defined guidelines. The staffing recommendations are computed for each ½ or 1 hour interval of the targeted period and are expected to provide staffing forecasts as many as 16 weeks forward.
The staffing planning method has four inputs: historical traffic forecast, user-defined store hours, user-defined minimum and maximum coverage, and one method of distribution. The user can choose between two methods of distribution: (1) distributing labor using a fixed number as the total number of payroll hours to be arranged in a given period; or (2) distributing labor using a targeted shopper-to-associate ratio without a fixed number of hours.
It is an objective of the present invention to provide a simplified, automated, and cost effective system for staffing recommendations.
It is a further objective of the present invention to help optimize associate performance by re-allocating more labor to the periods of highest traffic without further increase in labor cost.
It is yet another objective of the present invention to provide customized data models for each store and provide traffic projections for as many as 16 weeks in advance.
It is another objective of the present invention to provide a simple user interface that is easy to load and requires little or no maintenance.
It is a further objective of the present invention to provide a user interface with clear and intuitive reporting.
It is another objective of the present invention to incorporate various practical factors (such as store hours, min/max staffing requirements, available payroll hours, holiday and seasonal variations) into the staffing recommendation for a given time period.
It is another objective of the present invention to provide integrated performance measurements to allow the user to assess staffing effectiveness.
It is another objective of the present invention to provide a user with secure access to the system.
In accordance with these and other objectives that will become apparent hereafter, the present invention will be described with particular reference to the accompanying drawings.

BRIEF DESCRIPTION OF THE DRAWINGS

FIG. 1 is a schematic overview of one embodiment of the invention;

FIG. 2 illustrates the process of selecting a baseline in the embodiment of FIG. 1;

FIG. 3 illustrates the process of distributing daily traffic in the embodiment of FIG. 1;

FIG. 4 illustrates the validation phase of distributing weekly labor in the embodiment of FIG. 1;

FIG. 5 illustrates the process of distributing labor and providing staffing recommendations in the embodiment of FIG. 1;

FIG. 6 illustrates the store hours setup in the embodiment of FIG. 1;

FIG. 7 illustrates the Min/Max coverage setup in the embodiment of FIG. 1

FIG. 8 illustrates the payroll hours setup in the embodiment of FIG. 1;

FIG. 9 illustrates the recommended staffing results by hour in the embodiment of FIG. 1;

FIG. 10 illustrates the power hours traffic forecast result in the embodiment of FIG. 1;

FIG. 11 illustrates the staffing performance result for a given week in the embodiment of FIG. 1;

FIG. 12 illustrates the staffing performance result for a given day in the embodiment of FIG. 1;

FIG. 13 illustrates the staffing performance result for a sample time period between Jul. 3, 2005 and Jul. 9, 2005 in the embodiment of FIG. 1; and

FIG. 14 illustrates the selling performance result for a given week to date in the embodiment of FIG. 1.

DETAILED DESCRIPTION OF THE INVENTION

This detailed description is presented in terms of programs, data structures or procedures executed on a computer or network of computers. The software programs implemented by the system may be written in languages such as JAVA, C++, C#, Python, PHP, or HTML. However, one of skill in the art will appreciate that other languages may be used instead, or in combination with the foregoing.
Store traffic is represented by foot traffic, which, for a store, is the count of shoppers in the store during a given interval.
Statistically, a distribution is defined as a set of numbers, each number having a frequency of occurrence collected from measurements over a statistical population.
FIG. 1 illustrates the system architecture of one embodiment of the invention. Major functions include select baseline 5, distribute daily traffic 6, and weekly labor distribution 7, as will be described.
As seen in FIG. 1, AutoBox (ABOX) 1 performs daily store foot traffic forecasts using state of the art statistical algorithms. Traffic forecast data on a day level are stored at the ABOX 1. Another potential source of traffic forecast is from custody data. FCST (Forecast) schema 2 is used to extract calendar/event information from the daily traffic forecast data. The FCST schema 2 can also be triggered by Database Trigger (DB Trigger) 3 to be integrated into labor schema 4. Referring to FIG. 2, the function of select baseline 5 computes baseline days based on inputs such as calendar 8, sister store definition 9, historical traffic information 10, and store hours 11. The baseline days are used as references to distribute daily traffic for a future date at ½ or 1 hour intervals. The daily traffic patterns are stored in the labor schema 4 (FIG. 1) and can be accessed and viewed through a user interface 8. The daily traffic distribution is also used for computing weekly labor distributions 7 and providing labor recommendations at V2 or 1 hour intervals for a given week. The weekly labor distributions 7 are also stored in the labor schema 4 and can be accessed through the user interface 8. The user interface 8 can be a web interface.
Select baseline function 5 is used to identify baseline days within the last year of history that are similar to a targeted future time period. The baseline days can be selected as the same days of those weeks that have the closest open/close times as the targeted time period. For example, if the targeted time period is a Thursday, the baseline days can be selected as the last 3 Thursdays within the last 365 days that have similar open/close times. For the holiday period, the baseline days are usually selected to be the same dates in the last year, which gives more reliable indication of traffic distribution.
As seen in FIG. 2, selecting a baseline involves both user-defined setup/configuration and system processing. The setup/configuration defined by the user includes: (1) store hours 11, i.e., daily operational hours for a given store; (2) holiday or event information from the calendar 8; and (3) historical traffic information from OutputDB 10. If there is not enough historical traffic information accumulated for a given store, sister store information 9 will also be used to obtain the baseline. After the setup/configuration is decided, records of all days that qualify as matching days to the targeted time period are retrieved from the database. For example, all Thursdays for the last 365 days may be retrieved when the user is trying to schedule a Thursday. The retrieved matching days are then ranked in the order of preference (such as the degree of similarity) according to baseline rules, and a certain number of days are selected to be the baseline days. An example of baseline rules is shown in the order of preference in FIG. 2. The average value 16 at each V2 or 1 hour interval for the selected baseline days is computed and used as the baseline 18 for daily traffic distribution.
As seen in FIG. 3, once the baseline 18 for daily traffic distribution is computed, the daily traffic can be distributed by using daily forecast data from distributed control 20, store hours 19, and baseline percentage for each ½ or 1 hour interval of each targeted day. The traffic distribution for each ½ or 1 hour interval is calculated as the product of the daily traffic forecast from distributed control 20 and the baseline percentage of that interval from the baseline 18. The result of the distribution can be accessed and viewed from the user interface 8.
As seen in FIG. 4, in addition to the daily traffic distribution, weekly labor distribution 32 can be computed for a given week. The computation of weekly labor distribution 32 requires two inputs as pre-requisites: (1) traffic flags from distribution control 20; and (2) Min/Max coverage 23 at ½ or 1 hour intervals. If any of the required inputs are not valid or are missing, the weekly labor distribution cannot be performed and the user will be communicated through user interface 8 of the missing or invalid inputs. After the pre-requisites are validated 22, the user may choose either Fixed method 25 or STARnd method 26 as the distribution method.
The Fixed method 25 uses a user-defined total number of employee hours available for selling for a given week to compute the labor distribution. In comparison, the STARThi method 26 does not require a fixed number of selling hours, but instead uses a Shopper-To-Associate Ratio (STAR) at % or 1 hour intervals for staffing computation.
The STAR 26 is computed as the amount of foot traffic in a store divided by the number of store employees on duty at a given interval. By studying trends in hourly and daily store traffic reports, district and store managers can identify an optimal STAR 26 value for a given store without overstaffing the store with unnecessary labor. Once the optimal STAR value is identified, scheduling additional personnel above the optimal STAR value will result in diminished returns on the retailer's labor investment, while scheduling below the optimal STAR value will result in insufficient employees on duty during peak selling hours or days, which may lead to lower service quality and lost sales. The optimal STAR value is sometimes referred to as STAR target 29. As seen in FIG. 4, STAR targets 29 at each V2 hour intervals are used to compute labor distribution in the illustrated embodiment.
If the Fixed method 25 is chosen, the user is required to enter the total number of selling hours 27 available for the targeted week. If the STAR method 26 is chosen, the user is required to enter STAR targets 29 at ½ or 1 hour intervals for the targeted week. If the chosen method and method-specific inputs pass validation test 30, the weekly labor distribution is performed 32. Failure to pass validation test 30 will not generate weekly labor distribution results.
As seen in FIG. 5, labor recommendations 33 are computed in two steps: (1) Using one of the two methods of distribution (the Fixed method 25 or the STAR method 26) to calculate \ labor recommendations 34 at ½ or 1 hour intervals during operating hours of each day within the targeted time period; and (2) regulating the recommendations by user-defined minimum coverage 24 and maximum coverage 26. Input to the minimum coverage 24 indicates the minimum number of employees allowed in the given store. Similarly, input to the maximum coverage 26 indicates the maximum number of employees allowed in the given store. Results of the labor recommendations 34 can be accessed and viewed through the user interface 8.
FIGS. 6-14 are screenshots of an online demonstration of the present invention. Each screenshot of the demonstration has a menu 36 on the left hand side and a data frame 38 on the right hand side of the page. The menu 36 allows the user to select the data frame 38 he or she wants to view.
As seen in FIG. 6, the user is prompted to enter or update the store hours for a given week at a given store by selecting from the menu 36 under the “administration” category and the “store hours” sub-category. For each day within the given week, the user specifies four fields: “open” 76, “store open” 78, “store close” 80, and “close” 82. Input to the “open” 76 text field indicates the time when employees start working at the store. Input to the “store open” 78 text field indicates the time when the store is open for shoppers. Similarly, inputs to the “store close” 80 and “close” 82 fields indicate the time when the store is closed for shoppers and employees respectively. The user can choose to load a template of store hours into the given store, or to input the hours manually and save the changes.
As seen in FIG. 7, the user is prompted to enter or update the min/max coverage for a given week at a given store by selecting from the menu 36 under the “administration” category and the “min/max coverage” sub-category. For each half-hour on each day within the given week, the user specifies two fields: minimum coverage 24 and maximum coverage 18. The user can choose to load a template of min/max coverage into the given store, or to input the numbers manually and save the changes.
As seen in FIG. 8, the user is prompted to enter or update the payroll hours for a given week for a list of stores by selecting from the menu 36 under the “administration” category and the “payroll hours” sub-category. The user specifies the selling hours 27 and the non-selling hours 28 for each store for the given week. The user may also specify the sales forecast 29 for each listed store. The selling hours 27 indicates the number of employee hours available at a given store during the time the store is open for shoppers, while the non-selling hours 28 indicates the number of employee hours available at the given store during the time the store will be open for employees but not shoppers.
As seen in FIG. 9, the user can view the recommended staffing at ½ or 1 hour intervals for each day within a given time period (such as “this week”) at each store by selecting from the menu 36 under the “administration” category and the “store hours” sub-category. The recommended staffing is given by the number of recommended employees on duty 76 shown in the data frame 38. For example, the recommended staffing number for 18:00 on Monday Nov. 28, 2005 is 3. Numbers 76 that are beyond a certain threshold are shaded and should be the focus of the store managers because they indicate periods of heavy store traffic. Sales forecast 70 for the given time period, available selling hours 72, and available non-selling hours 74 are also displayed in the same data frame 38.
As seen in FIG. 10, the user can view the power hours traffic forecast at ½ or 1 hour intervals for each day within a given period of time (such as “this week”) at each store by selecting from the menu 36 under the “power hours” category. The power hours traffic forecast for each hour or half-hour for each day within the given week are given in the data frame 38. Power hours beyond a certain threshold are shaded and those shaded power hours should be the focus of management. For example, the management can decide to avoid sending associates on breaks or lunches during these periods.
As seen in FIG. 11, the user can view the staffing performance for a given week for each store by selecting from the menu 36 under the “staffing” category and inputting the week ending date 58 in the corresponding text field in the data frame 38. The data frame 38 shows for each day within that week the store foot traffic 50, the recommended selling labor 40 a, the actual selling labor 40 b, the compliance 42, the traffic percentage (percentage of traffic occurred in that day over the given week) 60, the recommended labor percentage (the percentage of recommended labor occurred in that day over the given week) 62, and the actual labor percentage 64 (the percentage of actual labor occurred in that day over the given week). In additional to viewing the numerical data displayed in table 66, the user can view the staffing performance comparison in a bar chart 68 in the same data frame 38. The bar chart 68 visualizes the results of the traffic percentage 62, the recommended labor percentage 62, and the actual labor percentage 64. As seen in FIG. 11 and from many other tests, the recommended labor percentage 62 tends to be closer to the store foot traffic measured on the spot than the actual labor percentage 64 used at a given store. This shows that the recommended labor percentage 62 is a good indication of the store traffic and could be used to help a store adjust to achieve its optimal operating performance.
Conversion rate 40 is a retail performance metric computed by comparing a store's foot traffic during a time period to the number of retail transactions occurred during that time period.
As seen in FIG. 12, the user can view the staffing performance for a given day (such as “yesterday”) for each store by selecting from the menu 36 under the “staffing” category. The corresponding data frame 38 shows for each store hour during that day the selling labor 40 including recommended selling labor 40 a and actual selling labor 40 b, the compliance 42, the STAR 26 values including the STAR values computed from recommended staffing 26 a and the STAR values computed from actual staffing 26 b, and the conversion rates 40 including the conversion rates computed from recommended staffing 40 a and the conversion rates computed from actual staffing. Also shown is sale impact 50, which is the cost saved or lost by adopting the recommended staffing instead of the actual staffing. The aggregated result for the specific day is also shown in the same data frame 38.
As seen in FIG. 13, the user can view the staffing performances for a user-defined time period for each store by selecting from the menu 36 under the “staffing” category and inputting the beginning date 44 and the end date 46 of the defined time period in corresponding text fields. The user can also select the period level (such as “day” or “hour”) from a drop-down menu 48 in the corresponding data frame 38. The data frame 38 shows the selling labor 40 including recommended selling labor 40 a and actual selling labor 40 b, the compliance 42, the STAR 26 values including the STAR values computed from recommended staffing 26 a and the STAR values computed from actual staffing 26 b, the conversion rates 40 including the conversion rates computed from recommended staffing 40 a and the conversion rates computed from actual staffing, and the sale impact 50. The aggregated result for the specified time period is also shown in the same data frame 38.
As seen in FIG. 14, the user can review the daily, weekly, or monthly selling performances for each store by selecting from the menu 36 under the “selling” category. The corresponding data frame 38 shows the traffic volume 50, the conversion rate 40, the sales 52, average transactions 54, STAR value 26, and sales per shopper 56 for each day within the given time period and the aggregated result for the given time period.
The invention is not limited by the embodiments disclosed herein and it will be appreciated that numerous modifications and embodiments may be devised by those skilled in the art. Therefore, it is intended that the following claims cover all such embodiments and modifications that fall within the true spirit and scope of the present invention.

Claims

1. A method of distributing labor based upon determinations of traffic in a facility, the method being executed by at least one processor and comprising the steps of:

(a) obtaining daily traffic forecast information for a defined time period;

(b) determining calendar and event information for the defined time period;

(c) selecting baseline days for the defined time period from historical traffic data and computing via the at least one processor baseline averages and percentages for a predetermined time interval, wherein the selected baselines days are a comprised of a plurality of similar time periods from a prior time period that is similar to the defined time period, wherein each of the baseline averages is computed as an average value for the predetermined time interval of the baseline days, and wherein each of the baseline percentages is computed as a portion of the baseline averages for the predetermined time interval compared to the total number of the baseline averages;

(d) determining the distribution of traffic for the defined time period at each time interval using the baseline percentages for each time interval;

(e) providing access to the labor data and labor recommendations based on the distribution of traffic for the defined time period and at least one of other user-defined workforce requirements; and

(f) providing the results of any of the foregoing steps.

2. The method of claim 1 wherein:

the step of selecting baseline days comprises the step of obtaining setup/configuration data and the step of system processing the setup/configuration data with the historical traffic data of the facility and the sister facility.

3. The method of claim 2 wherein:

the setup/configuration data includes store hours and the calendar and event information.

4. The method of claim 2 wherein:

the step of selecting baseline days further includes using the setup/configuration data to select data from the historical traffic data of the facility and the sister facility, and ranking the selected data in order of preference, the preference defined by baseline rules.

5. The method of claim 4 wherein: the baseline days comprise days included in certain of the selected data that is preferentially ranked.

6. The method of claim 1 wherein:

the step of determining the distribution of traffic further includes multiplying a value for the baseline percentages by a value for the daily traffic forecast information for the predetermined time interval for each of the days in a given time period.

7. The method of claim 1 wherein the step of distributing labor data comprises the additional steps of:

(a) obtaining the traffic data;

(b) obtaining minimum and maximum coverage data for the predetermined time interval;

(c) validating the steps of obtaining the traffic data and obtaining minimum and maximum coverage data; and

(d) selecting a labor distribution procedure from among a plurality of labor distribution procedures.

8. The method of claim 7, wherein the plurality of labor distribution procedures includes at least one procedure comprising the steps of:

inputting the total number of employee hours available for selling in the facility;

assigning for the predetermined time interval the minimum employee coverage;

computing remaining available employee hours; and

assigning the additional available employee hours to the predetermined time interval.

9. The method of claim 7, wherein the plurality of labor distribution procedures includes at least one procedure comprising the steps of:

inputting data comprising a desired shopper-to-sales associate ratio for the facility at each time interval; and

the traffic distribution data by the desired shopper-to-associate ratio to produce recommended distribution of labor.

10. The method of claim 8 wherein:

the employee hours assigned to the time interval does not exceed the maximum coverage for the time interval.

11. The method of claim 1 wherein:

the step of providing the results comprises displaying the results on an electronic display device.

12. The method of claim 1 wherein:

the step of providing access to the labor data and the labor recommendations further includes providing access to the method for generating the labor data and the labor recommendations.

13. At least one computer readable medium encoded with computer-executable instructions that, when executed on a computer system, perform a method for distributing labor based upon determinations of traffic in a facility, the method comprising the steps of:

(a) obtaining daily traffic forecast information for a defined time period;

(b) determining calendar and event information for the defined time period;

(f) providing the results of any of the foregoing steps.

14. The at least one computer-readable medium of claim 13, wherein selecting baseline days comprises obtaining setup/configuration data and system processing the setup/configuration data with the historical traffic data of the facility and the sister facility.

15. The at least one computer-readable medium of claim 14, wherein the setup/configuration data includes store hours and the calendar and event information.

16. The at least one computer-readable medium of claim 14, wherein selecting baseline days further includes using the setup/configuration data to select data from the historical traffic data of the facility and the sister facility, and ranking the selected data in order of preference, the preference defined by baseline rules.

17. The at least one computer-readable medium of claim 16, wherein the baseline days comprised days included in certain of the selected data that is preferentially ranked.

18. The at least one computer-readable medium of claim 13, wherein determining the distribution of traffic comprises multiplying a value for the baseline percentages by a value for the daily traffic forecast information for the predetermined time interval for each of the days in a given time period.

19. The at least one computer-readable medium of claim 13, wherein distributing labor data comprises the additional steps of

(a) obtaining the traffic data;

20. The at least one computer-readable medium of claim 19, wherein the plurality of labor distribution procedures includes at least one procedure comprising the steps of:

assigning for the predetermined time interval the minimum employee coverage;

computing remaining available employee hours; and

assigning the additional available employee hours to the time interval.

21. The at least one computer-readable medium of claim 19, wherein the plurality of labor distribution procedures includes at least one procedure comprising the steps of:

dividing the traffic distribution data divided by the desired shopper-to-associate ratio to produce recommended distribution of labor.

22. The at least one computer-readable medium of claim 20 wherein:

23. The at least one computer-readable medium of claim 13 wherein:

24. The at least one computer-readable medium of claim 23 wherein: