Forecasts for US oil and gas production. Jean Laherrère, 19 mars 2018.
This paper was written in association with Charlie Hall in view of a presentation in New Orleans on 21 March at a ACS conference during a session called “M. King Hubbert: Is He Relevant?”.
ASPO France 
Thank you very much for this study. I search constantly on a daily basis for new information, scientific research, and reports on the oil situation. I have been especially interested in scientific research on us tight oil since this is one of the two main determining factors of when world production will peak – and how severe the impact will be – the other main factor now is the critically low level of investment. Unfortunately, I believe the impact will be cataclysmic.
I have a request: Please provide links and names of studies referenced on page 22.
dear Norman
I do not see any reference on page 22 of my paper, where I write on my past forecasts
I can send you my updated biblio
2016 biblio http://aspofrance.viabloga.com/files/biblio-Aug2016.pdf
tell me if you want to know more about my papers
tell me more about you, as I did not find anything on http://whois.arin.net/rest/ip/73.74.229.224
best regards
jean laherrere
Jean, thank you so much for your swift reply.
I was referring to the table of forecasts for « US all » and « USL48. » Maybe I’m misunderstanding this table.
Specifically, I searched for the MIT forecast from 2018 which suggests 235 for USL 48 but couldn’t find anything. I read the MIT study from 2017 that suggests EIA has overestimated US recoverable tight oil, but I don’t think this is the study to which you refer. I probably already have a copy of MIT’s 2014 forecast, but I would very much appreciate links to both of these MIT forecasts.
I would also very much like a link to Rystad’s 2016 and 2018 reports if they are available. I have read short articles about Rystad’s 2016 report but haven’t found direct links and I don’t know the actual names of these reports.
Best Regards
Hi Jean,
I read your excellent world oil forecast.
Cliquer pour accéder à 35cooilforecast.pdf
For US crude & condensate production, you have 3.45 Gb for 2015 peak or 9.45 mbd. (page 65 of your report)
I assume that you get this number from the EIA which says that crude & condensate production was 9.43 mbd in 2015.
https://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/pet_crd_crpdn_adc_mbblpd_a.htm
For 2018, average US crude & condensate production up to Aug 24 is estimated to be 10.6 mbd (or 3.9 Gb/year) which may be a new peak for the US for 2018.
https://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist/LeafHandler.ashx?n=PET&s=WCRFPUS2&f=W
US 2018 average crude production is 10.6 mbd which is 1.2 mbd greater than 2015. US Permian LTO production in 2015 was 1.88 mbd and average up to July 2018 was 3.15 mbd for an increase of 1.3 mbd which explains most of the entire US crude production difference from 2015 to 2018.
https://www.eia.gov/petroleum/drilling/
(The attached file is the data source for the Permian region crude production)
Permian LTO production increase has been huge starting from just below 1 mbd in 2009 and the EIA forecast is 3.42 mbd for Sep 2018.
Cliquer pour accéder à permian.pdf
You say that shale oil plays are a burst. When that burst is over then the world liquids production would have peaked and the world will take notice of the urgency to react to peak oil. Since Permian LTO is the biggest shale oil play, when Permian LTO peaks then world liquids should peak.
Scout company IHS says that Permian oil production will reach 5.4 mbd in 2023. They also say that increase would require over $US300b of investment. Would you agree with IHS?
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-oil-permian-outlook-ihs/permian-basin-oil-production-to-reach-5-4-mbd-in-2023-ihs-markit-idUSKBN1J91W8
Here is another recent article on Permian basin referring to your charts.
https://www.silverdoctors.com/headlines/world-news/steve-st-angelo-the-coming-collapse-of-us-shale-oil-production/
Thank you,
Tony Eriksen
Sydney, Australia
Anthony
sorry but I discover your mail today on May 2019, it was not sent to me directly and it is the first time I go through this file.
I guess that you get some answers on LTO on my last paper on updated US primary energy
I spent 4 years in australia 1962-1966 and if you want to cross the Simpson desert take the French Line that i designed in 1963 wth Dean Drayton
best
jean laherrer