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Outside view - Lesswrongwiki
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21 juil. 2013 - Taking the outside view (another name for reference class ... responds that this leads to "reference class tennis" wherein people feel that the ...Induction; or, the rules and etiquette of reference class tennis - Less ...
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3 mars 2013 - Induction; or, the rules and etiquette of reference class tennis ... Should we put a future war in the (huge) reference class "wars" and confidently ...Reference class of the unclassreferenceable - Less Wrong
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8 janv. 2010 - Finding a convincing reference class in which cryonics, singularity, ...... PONG. Your move in the wonderful game of Reference Class Tennis."Outside View!" as Conversation-Halter - Less Wrong
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24 févr. 2010 - If I were to play the game of reference class tennis, I'd put recursively self-Useful Concepts Repository - Less Wrong
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10 juin 2013 - (Guess I should throw in reference class tennis as well. Fortunately, just as with actual tennis, it's hard to play reference class tennis on my own, ...The Prediction Hierarchy - Less Wrong
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19 janv. 2010 - And it gets us into "reference class tennis" again. .... on this situation is much less than we think" and try to use broader reference classes to see ...Contrarianism and reference class forecasting - Less Wrong
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25 nov. 2009 - If you put climate change scientists in the reference class of ... disputes between would-be rationalists end in a game of reference class tennis.Many Weak Arguments and the Typical Mind - Less Wrong
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6 juin 2013 - I believe that this alternative is largely free of the problems with “reference class tennis” that Eliezer highlights, and is generally superior to the ...Previous Post Revised - Less Wrong
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14 déc. 2009 - The qualitative reasoning of this post, of course, stands. ..... For one thing it gets you right into the "reference class tennis" you've talked about ...The Growth of My Pessimism: Transhumanism, Immortalism, Effective ...
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28 nov. 2015 - We need a community that at once understands probability theory, doesn't play reference class tennis, and doesn't lose motivation by ...